Thursday, March 29, 2018

an ancient annal of computer science

Over the last year I have been interested in developing my programming / coding, to get to the point where I can be more confident of sharing my code with other people.  And also to be able to contribute to general purpose numerical / statistical software.

As part of this effort I have dipped in to The Art of Computer Programming (TAOCP) by Donald Knuth.  The cover says "this multivolume work is widely recognized as the definitive description of classical computer science."  American Scientist listed it as one of the 12 top physical-science monographs of the 20th century alongside monographs by the likes of Albert Einstein, Bertrand Russell, von Neumann and Wiener - http://web.mnstate.edu/schwartz/centurylist2.html.

I am sure there are many other books that cover similar material at a more introductory level, but I find something exciting about going back the source and reading an author who was personally involved in fundamental discoveries and developments.

There are also probably more modern accounts of computer programming that better reflect more recent innovations.  Knuth himself encourages readers of TAOCP to look at his more recent work on Literate Programming.  But I also think it is worth dwelling on things that have proven to be useful to a wide range of people over an extended period of time.

I have Volume 1 in the Third Edition of TAOCP, published in 1997, which is already prehistoric in some senses - it is before Google was founded (1998) and way before Facebook was launched (2004).  However parts of the book date a lot further back than that - Knuth's advice on how to write complex and lengthy programs was mostly written in 1964!

Here is a summary of that advice (p191-193 of TAOCP Volume 1),

Step 1 : develop a rough sketch of the main top-level program.  Make a list of subroutines / functions that you will need to write.  "It usually pays to extend the generality of each subroutine a little."
Step 2 : create a first working program starting from the lowest-level subroutines and working up to the main program.
Step 3 : Re-examine your code starting from the main program and working down studying for each subroutine all the calls made on it.  Refactor your program and subroutines.

Knuth suggests that at the end of Step 3 "it is often a good idea to scrap everything and start again".  He goes on to say "some of the best computer programs ever written owe much of the success to the fact that all the work was unintentionally lost, at about this stage, and the authors had to begin again." - quite a thought-provoking statement!

Step 4 : check that when you execute your program, everything is taking place as expected, i.e., debugging.  "Many of today's best programmers will devote nearly half their programs to facilitating the debugging process in the other half; the first half, which usually consists of fairly straightforward routines that display relevant information in a readable format, will eventually be thrown away, but the net result is a surprising gain in productivity."

I don't know whether today's best programmers still do this.  I know some pretty good programmers and have been surprised how much effort they devoted to the kind of activity that Knuth is describing.  Personally I now rely quite a lot on the debugger in Visual Studio, and (indirectly) on compilers to give me most of the debugging information I need for not much effort.





Friday, March 2, 2018

Pensions for professors

It is not often that universities make front page news but the recent strike by university lecturers seems to have got quite a lot of media coverage.

On the surface it looks like quite a straight-forward dispute about money.  University vice-chancellors (represented by a body called Universities UK) are proposing to reduce the pensions that university staff will receive in the future.  The reason they are doing this is that existing contributions to the pension fund for universities (the USS) are not expected to cover the cost of future pensions.

One political commentator, who I have a lot of respect for, Daniel Finkelstein, has said that lecturers are striking against themselves.  He argues that increased contributions from universities to the USS would have a damaging effect on university lecturers.  As a result of increasing contributions, universities would have to either pay lecturers a lower salary and/or employ fewer of them.

He also argues that it would be unfair for the government to increase funding to universities in order to pay generous pensions at a time when the NHS is strapped for cash, prisons seem to be nearing a state of anarchy and universities are already generously funded by students through expensive tuition fees.  A large chunk of these tuition fees may end up being paid by the government if students are unable to pay back their loans.

While I find this line of reasoning quite persuasive, it seems to be predicated on the assumption that there will be an indefinite squeeze on the nation's finances.  As country we have had around 7 years of government austerity.  Recent news suggests that this austerity has been successful in eliminating the government deficit from around £100bn a year down to zero - https://www.ft.com/content/3f7db634-1cac-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6.

So will the squeeze be indefinite or are we approaching the end of it?  Nobody really knows.  As of 12 months ago, the OBR, which produces official forecasts of the government deficit, was still forecasting a large deficit for 2018-19.  But tax receipts have been a lot stronger than expected.  Speaking from personal experience, these things are difficult to forecast!

My view is that economic growth and tax receipts will be stronger than they have been for much of the last 10 years.  As a result, the USS will probably not run out of money and if it does, the government should inject some extra cash to keep it afloat.  There are many competing spending priorities for the government, but I think that attracting and retaining bright people across the public sector is essential.  While there are many who are drawn to the public sector purely with a desire to contribute to society, generous public sector pensions do play a big role in encouraging people to stay.  I think these pensions should continue so that public services can flourish as they ought to.